22,771,649. That’s the estimated total of Australia’s population. According to the Australian bureau of statistics there is one birth every 1 minute and 46 seconds, and an Australian dies every 3 minutes and 40 seconds. Every 2 minutes and 44 seconds there is another international migrant crossing the Australian border. Overall, the Australian population increases by one person every 1 minute and 31 seconds.
Population is linked with housing demand. More importantly, the change in population is directly related to the demand for housing. To put it simply, more people means more homes.
Although this is an important indicator, we only see quarterly updates of Australia’s population estimates at a macro level. More geographically granular updates are released only annually. Additionally, there is a long time lag for updating population data. The official estimates at a state and national level are currently up to date as at March 2011 with the June quarter estimates due to be released on December 19th.
Total population growth has eased since peaking back in the March quarter of 2008. Part of this slow down can be attributed to the migration cuts brought in by the Federal Labor Government. Additinally we have seen a rise in the number of permanent and long term departures from Australia which ahs only recently started to reverse.
We are now seeing an ongoing trend of higher net migration rates; fewer residents leaving and more new or returning residents arriving. The migration data is also seasonal, with spikes being recorded during February and July each year. On a rolling annual basis, the September results for net migration were then highest since August 2010. This is likely the result of the improved migration intake, with the Federal Budget announcing a 10.5% uplift in the skilled migrant intake and a 7.4% increase in the number of migrant families. The trend of fewer long term and permanent resident departures is also assisting to drive the net migration figures upwards.
Without a doubt, as the ABS release the new demographic data for the June and September quarters of this year we will see an improvement in population growth figures. Theoretically the uplift in population growth should translate to greater housing demand, so we should start seeing that reflected in some improved dwelling approval and commencement figures. That will be a welcomed development by the residential building sector where the latest construction data from the ABS showed the value of residential construction was down 3.9% over the year.
There seems to be a certain amount of optimism in property at the moment. In the Merimbula, Eden, Bega and Cooma areas there appears to have been more properties selling in this last month and a heightened increase in investing again. A compelling argument could be made for 2012 being the best year in the past decade to buy residential property.
Australia’s housing market correction appears to be slowing, with values achieving their best result in seven months, according to RP Data. The company’s home value index reports regional house values recorded a positive result in the month of September, rising by 0.1 per cent.
The 8.1 per cent lift in consumer confidence, as well as rising speculation that interest rates are continued to head south, are likely to be drivers of this improvement.
There has been continued strong growth in rents, which according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics expanded by 1.2 per cent in the September quarter and by 4.6 per cent over the year. This has meant that gross total returns for homeowners have actually been positive.